Challenges posed by Donald Trump and risks for both the Conservatives and Labour, while also offering prospects for the Liberal Democrats and Reform Party.
There are several individuals who stand to gain from Donald Trump‘s anticipated return. Among them are the wealthy tech moguls who prominently attended his inauguration, the oil corporations eager to resume extensive drilling, cryptocurrency advocates, and notably, Sir Ed Davey.
You might have noticed, although I doubt the intended audience has, that the Liberal Democrats have ramped up their anti-Trump rhetoric since his election victory. Sir Ed has characterized Trump’s return to the White House as “a dark, dark day for people around the globe,” labeling him a “dangerous, destructive demagogue” and viewing his inauguration as a “threat to peace and prosperity.”
These sentiments aren’t particularly groundbreaking for the Lib Dem leader; they seem almost tame compared to the more vehement criticisms voiced by other British politicians. This mirrors the previous comments made by figures like Foreign Secretary David Lammy and other Labour officials, who expressed even stronger disapproval of the U.S. president before tempering their remarks to maintain diplomatic relations under the Starmer administration. Free from governmental duties and the need for compromise, Sir Ed can openly express his views, aligning himself with Britons who are appalled by Trump’s resurgence.
Polling indicates that a significant portion of the British public shares this sentiment, and Sir Ed likely sees an opportunity to position himself as a staunch opponent of Trump. To reinforce his support for “Britain’s fantastic farmers,” he utilized his time during the latest Prime Minister’s Questions to urge Sir Keir to reject any U.S. trade deal that might undermine local food standards. It’s a safe bet that Trump will become a frequent topic in future PMQs, often creating challenges for the Prime Minister.
This situation foreshadows a tumultuous period for Labour MPs. It’s almost certain that the new president will provoke outrage among centrist, left-wing, and liberal circles in the UK. When he inevitably does, Sir Ed and a chorus of Lib Dem MPs will be quick to voice their disapproval, joined by members of the Green Party and independent leftists. London Mayor Sadiq Khan has already issued warnings about the threats to Western democracy posed by “resurgent fascism.” The next four years promise to be painfully awkward for Labour representatives, who will be expected to suppress their true opinions in the interest of maintaining a working relationship with the U.S. president.
The Starmer administration must prepare for the disruptive fallout that will come from across the Atlantic.
Nigel Farage can also be added to the list of UK politicians who aim to leverage Trump’s return. Despite not receiving an invitation to the inauguration, he is determined to capitalize on his connections with the former president. Having attended one of the official balls in Washington, he will continue to promote himself as a Trump confidant, likely attracting even more media attention.
“All the energy is around Trump”, laments a Labour veteran and long-time associate of the Prime Minister. The British political scene is more captivated than ever by events unfolding in the U.S. The government has been strategizing on how to navigate potential conflicts with the White House, particularly regarding defense spending, tariffs, and the Chagos Islands. Regular instances of transatlantic tension are anticipated, such as the speculation that the White House may refuse to accept Peter Mandelson as the next UK ambassador—an unprecedented snub in modern history. British officials are eager to arrange a visit to Washington for Sir Keir but must avoid appearing desperate in their efforts.
Team Starmer should brace themselves for the explosive reactions that may come from across the ocean, often arriving at unexpected times. While trying to manage a notoriously unpredictable and sensitive American leader, Sir Keir will also have to tread carefully at home. If he hesitates to criticize the president’s objectionable actions, he risks being labeled as cowardly by the left. Conversely, if he speaks frankly about their differences, he may face backlash from the right for jeopardizing the vital UK-U.S. alliance. A senior Tory commented on the Trump-Starmer dynamic: “My party will argue that a good relationship is in the national interest while doing everything possible to undermine it.”
For some Tories, Trump’s return to power is a source of inspiration. If he can make a comeback despite past controversies, why not them? Hard-right figures within the Reform Party or the Conservative Party may take this as a cue to adopt similar tactics to enhance their own appeal. There are also concerns among some close to the Prime Minister about the implications for British politics if Trump’s second term is deemed successful. “What if it works?” one senior Labour figure expressed to me recently.
At the same time, moderate Tories are wary of the risks their party faces if they become too enamored with Trump’s style. He is not just a challenge for Labour; he also presents significant dilemmas for the Conservatives. The only British representative at the inauguration was Boris Johnson, who notably is the only British Prime Minister to have been ousted from the Commons for dishonesty.
Liz Truss, though not invited, appeared in Washington to pose for cameras while wearing a red MAGA hat. It’s worth noting that her tenure was so disastrous that she holds the record for the shortest-serving British Prime Minister. The sight of these two discredited figures vying for attention in D.C. was cringe-worthy for any Conservative hoping the electorate might overlook their past misdeeds while in power.