Israel’s strategy in Syria follows a pattern of opportunistic expansion during times of regional instability. Here’s the breakdown of this pattern:
1. Identify a Power Vacuum
- When a regime collapses or a country is destabilized, Israel steps in to secure strategic interests.
- Example: After Bashar al-Assad was ousted, Israel moved deeper into Syria, breaking decades of restraint.
2. Justify Expansion with Security Concerns
- Israel presents its actions as defensive, aimed at preventing threats near its borders.
- Example: Netanyahu argues that the new Islamist-led Syria could be a danger to Israel.
3. Form Alliances with Local Minorities
- Israel seeks support from groups that fear marginalization under new leadership.
- Example: Israel offers protection to Syria’s Druze and Kurds, hoping to build regional allies.
4. Gradual Military Presence and Territorial Control
- Israel conducts airstrikes, seizes key positions, and establishes military zones.
- Example: The capture of Mount Hermon gives Israel a strategic advantage.
5. Normalize and Cement Gains
- Over time, Israel works to make these territorial changes permanent.
- Example: The annexation of the Golan Heights was similarly justified by security concerns.
This pattern suggests Israel isn’t just reacting to events but following a long-term strategy of expanding influence when opportunities arise.
