Pahalgam attack: India suspends Indus Waters Treaty with immediate effect, closes Attari border check post

What Triggered the Crisis?

• A terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, left 26 civilians dead, mostly Indian men, one from Nepal. It was the deadliest civilian attack in the region since 2000.

• India blamed Pakistan, citing alleged cross-border links.

• Pakistan denied involvement, calling the accusations baseless, and some officials even suggested the attack may have been a false flag operation.

India’s Retaliatory Measures

1. Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Suspended

   • A dramatic move; IWT has been in place since 1960 and survived multiple wars.

   • Legally, per Article XII, it can only be terminated by mutual agreement.

   • Suspending it unilaterally could bring international legal and diplomatic scrutiny, especially from the World Bank, which brokered the original deal.

2. Attari Border Closure

   • A symbolic and logistical blow; impacts cross-border travel and trade.

3. Expulsion of Pakistani Military Personnel

   • Defence and military staff from the High Commission asked to leave in 7 days.

4. Visa Restrictions

   • Pakistanis in India under the SAARC visa scheme given 48 hours to leave.

5. High Commission Downsizing

   • Strength of diplomatic missions on both sides reduced to 30 from 55.

Pakistan’s Response

• NSC Meeting Convened by PM Shehbaz Sharif to decide next steps.

• Foreign Office and Ministers condemned India’s “rash” response.

• Officials emphasized the need for evidence and described India’s action as “politically motivated and presumptive”.

• Defence Minister Khawaja Asif raised the specter of another false flag operation and warned of potential military action from India, referencing past events like Balakot.

Global Reaction

• Trump reportedly offered Modi “full support”, showing U.S. alignment with India.

• China and others condemned the attack but haven’t commented on India’s suspension of the IWT yet.

• South Asia watchers, like Michael Kugelman, called India’s actions “highly consequential”.

Legal and Diplomatic Context

• Unilateral suspension of IWT is controversial and possibly violates international law.

• Such actions risk global backlash or mediation efforts by neutral third parties.

• Could set a precedent with major implications for transboundary water treaties worldwide.

What Could Happen Next?

• Tensions along the LoC may escalate, or India might conduct limited strikes or cyber ops.

• Diplomatic and economic disengagement between the countries will deepen.

• Pakistan may take the matter to UNSC, ICJ, or the World Bank.

• Public pressure in both nations could influence decisions — nationalistic rhetoric is already ramping up.