On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump in an effort to secure continued American support for Ukraine. However, the meeting did not go as planned. Trump and his Vice President, JD Vance, criticized Zelenskyy on live television, accusing him of being “disrespectful” and rejecting their proposed ceasefire plan with Russia.
Following this encounter, it is unlikely that Zelenskyy will return to Washington while Trump is in office. Additionally, the US is expected to put more pressure on Ukraine in the coming months, pushing Kyiv to make concessions to Russia in exchange for peace.
Growing Concerns Over Zelenskyy’s Leadership
Even before this White House meeting, the Trump administration questioned Zelenskyy’s leadership, suggesting that Ukraine should hold new presidential elections. However, rushing into an election just to remove Zelenskyy could lead to instability.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Zelenskyy’s approval ratings were as low as 28 percent. The war initially boosted his popularity, but his ratings have since declined. Polls indicate that public trust in him fell from 54 percent in April 2024 to 49 percent in January 2025. While this is not as low as Trump claims, it is far from his peak approval of 90 percent in May 2022.
Several factors contribute to his declining support, including ongoing corruption and the exhaustion of war. Zelenskyy is aware that losing an election could lead to prosecution or retaliation from political opponents. Current polls suggest that if an election were held today, he would likely lose.
Potential Challengers to Zelenskyy
A number of figures could challenge Zelenskyy’s presidency:
- Valerii Zaluzhnyi – A former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, dismissed in February 2024. His popularity remains high, with 72 percent of Ukrainians trusting him. Although he has not announced a presidential run, he could still enter the race.
- Kyrylo Budanov – The head of Ukraine’s intelligence agency, with a trust rating of 62 percent. He has recently disappeared from public view, sparking rumors of a political dispute with Zelenskyy. However, he could return if elections are announced.
- Oleksandr Usyk – A famous boxing champion, Usyk has no political experience but has appeared in polls with a 60 percent approval rating. Given Ukraine’s history of electing unconventional leaders, he could be a surprise candidate.
- Petro Poroshenko – A former president and outspoken critic of Zelenskyy. He faces more than 130 criminal cases, including accusations of treason. His recent travel restrictions suggest that the government is blocking his political ambitions.
Many other potential candidates have stayed quiet, likely fearing government retaliation if they challenge Zelenskyy.
The Risks of Holding an Election During War
The political scene in Ukraine is tense, with deep divisions among the people. The war has intensified these divides, creating a dangerous situation where an election could worsen instability.
Several issues make an election risky:
- Polarisation – Some Ukrainians strongly support the war, while others lean toward ending it through negotiation. An election could deepen these divides.
- Militancy – Armed nationalist groups and pro-Russian elements remain active, increasing the risk of unrest.
- Legitimacy concerns – With millions of Ukrainians displaced by the war, a fair election would be difficult to organize.
If the US or other foreign powers push for an election in this volatile climate, it could lead to chaos. A rushed vote could trigger conflicts between different factions, including political rivals, security forces, and military groups.
What Ukraine Needs Before an Election
To avoid further instability, Ukraine should only hold elections when:
- There is a stable ceasefire, ensuring all citizens can vote safely.
- The country has recovered enough to prevent political violence.
- Political rivals are allowed to campaign freely without fear of government retaliation.
Ukraine has already suffered from Russia’s invasion and economic decline. A rushed and forced election could make things even worse. Instead of bowing to foreign pressure, Ukraine must prioritize stability before deciding on its next leader.
