Iraqi Militias Consider Disarmament Amid U.S. Pressure, Averting Wider Conflict
BAGHDAD – Several powerful Iran-backed Iraqi militias are prepared to disarm for the first time to avoid a full-blown conflict with the U.S. under the Trump administration, according to 10 senior militia commanders and Iraqi officials who spoke to Reuters.
Key Developments:
- U.S. Ultimatum: Washington has privately warned Baghdad that if it fails to disband militias, the U.S. could launch airstrikes against them.
- Militia Compliance: Six commanders from groups including Kataib Hezbollah, Nujabaa, and Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa confirmed they are willing to stand down, fearing devastating U.S. retaliation.
- Iran’s Approval: The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have reportedly given militias the green light to disarm, seeking to avoid a direct confrontation with the U.S. and Israel.
Why Now?
- Trump’s Hardline Stance: Militia leaders believe the Trump administration is ready to escalate military action if attacks on U.S. forces continue.
- Regional Pressure: Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” is weakening—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have been battered by Israeli and U.S. strikes, while Syria’s Assad has lost influence.
- Iraq’s Balancing Act: Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is pushing for state control over all armed groups, negotiating their potential integration into the military or conversion into political parties.
Militias on the Defensive
- Some groups have already vacated headquarters in cities like Mosul and Anbar to avoid U.S. airstrikes.
- Commanders are changing locations, phones, and vehicles frequently to evade targeting.
- The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (an umbrella of ~10 factions with 50,000 fighters) has been a major threat, launching missile and drone attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets since the Gaza war began.
U.S. & Iraqi Responses
- U.S. State Department: Urges Iraq to rein in militias, insisting they must answer to Baghdad, not Tehran.
- Iraqi Government: Sudani’s adviser confirmed efforts to bring all weapons under state control through “constructive dialogue.”
- Skepticism Remains: A U.S. official doubts any long-term disarmament, citing past militia de-escalations that were temporary.
Broader Implications
- Historic Shift: This marks the first time these militias have seriously considered Western demands to demilitarize.
- Iran’s Waning Influence: The potential disarmament deals a major blow to Tehran’s proxy network in the region.
- Risk of Forced Disarmament: If Iraq fails to act, the U.S. may impose it militarily, risking wider conflict.
What’s Next?
- Finalizing a Deal: Discussions on disarmament mechanisms (political integration vs. military absorption) are ongoing.
- U.S. Military Posture: Pentagon officials are monitoring compliance, with airstrikes still on the table if attacks resume.
- Regional Fallout: A successful demobilization could reduce tensions, but hardline factions may resist.
Background:
- These militias emerged post-2003 U.S. invasion with Iranian backing, becoming a parallel armed force in Iraq.
- Their attacks on U.S. troops spiked after October 7, including a deadly drone strike in Jordan that killed three Americans.
