Talks That Go Nowhere
The talks between the European powers and Iran in Vienna have again hit the wall. The three European France, Germany and the United Kingdom desired some clarity. Iran though made not much ground. The breakthrough was nonexistent as much hyped. Instead, mistrust deepened. Every side blamed the other. The negotiations left an open bag of questions.
The Snapback Sword
The most feared is the feared snapback mechanism. This provision gives the UN sanctions the opportunity to resume in case Iran is found not to be compliant. Europe does not want to use it but keeps as a threat. Iran views it as blackmail. This mechanism has its shade of poison in the dialogue. To Tehran the snapback is a sword hovering above its head. For Europe it is leverage. This conflict has rendered compromise barely an option.
Iran Hardens Its Stance
Iran has taken the noticeable actions to coerce the other party. It stopped collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Inspectors are closed too. The message is unmistakable. Iran does not want to be continuously spied on. More alarming is enrichment. Iran has taken its uranium programmed to near weaponry levels. This is not just technical. It is political. It means Tehran will not succumb to pressure.
Europe Caught in the Middle
The European three are in dilemma. They would like to preserve the nuclear deal, and they are also afraid of the escalation. Washington is observant and prepared to insist on a more decisive course. Russia and China in turn have the prospects of supporting Iran. Europe is pressed at both extremes. Conciliating Iran endangers American irritation. Encouraging punitive measures jeopardizes complete crashing down of diplomacy. The E3 must make a choice but the alternatives are dismal.
The Deadline Approaches
Time is short. There is a formal period to lodge sanctions. Iran will react even more should Europe snapback. The weak structure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action can fall apart. Already, trust is eroded. Deadlines bring about an extra burden and meager hope. There are new escalations every week headlined. The time is running, and nobody can come up with a solution.
Furthermore, enrichment to near weapons grade shocks. The world is aware of how near Iran is to the threshold. This is no longer civilian energy. It borders on military possibility. Israel has already given threats of red lines. The Gulf countries talk of having their own nuclear capabilities. Regional arms races are no longer a hypothetical element. The shadow of proliferation hangs heavy.
Diplomacy or Disaster
The impasse shows a broader fact. Trustless diplomacy is theater. Europe desires discussion when Iran perceives duplicity. However, Iran is seeking relief and Europe wants oversight. They are in a demand and refusal cycle. Without bold action disaster looms. Vienna negotiations are not going on. They are stalling. The area cannot spare this.
Europe needs to rethink. Sanctions will not help resolve this. Nor can threats. Iran needs to observe material incentives.
Meanwhile, Tehran should obey international commitments. Brinkmanship is just foddering. To both parties the thought that the other is better. Escalation is conflict and conflict is catastrophe.
The European Iranian impasse is not merely a policy debate. It is an examination of global determination. Will diplomacy change or shall coercion assume the place. The snapback mechanism was originally insurance. Today, it feels like a trigger. No bluff is made of uranium enrichment to within weapons grade. It is a warning. The world now watches Vienna. The choices made now will have generational effects.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are exclusively those of the author and do not reflect the official stance, policies, or perspectives of the Platform.
