The latest Global Peace Index (GPI) in 2025 has shed a dark light on the worsening situation in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) as the region was one of the highly speculative nuclear flash points in the world today. The report goes further to say that close to 40,000 lives have been lost and the beautiful scenic Himalayan valley has been transformed to what majority of people today regard as the most militarized territory on earth as a result of the longstanding military presence of India in the region which has been intensified since 1989. Conversely, the report also points out that Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) in Pakistan has a comparatively small military presence and has only about 60,000 soldiers that currently represents a stark contrast with the stance of the two countries in this conflict.
At the core of the GPI warnings is the fact that the posturing of India and its recent military indiscretion has occurred. The report has mentioned the unprovoked Indian missile unleashed against Pakistan in May 2025 along the stretch of Pahalgam as a perilous jump in the seriousness situation, how at ease an area of minor conflict can turn into a disastrous regional war. Also, this event which potentially sparked off a nuclear confrontation has been singled out by the GPI as another vivid indication of New Delhi becoming prone to volatile militarism. The report is not sparing of words in indicating that India is an increasing threat to the peace and stability, not only in the South Asia, but to the world in general.
The key aspect of GPI analytics is its discussion of the attack of 22 April 2025 in Pahalgam that was immediately labelled as an act of the terrorists by India. It is notable that the language used in the report when describing the assailants’ states as gunmen, which demonstrates the lack of readiness by the international community to embrace fully the description of the Kashmiri insurgents by the Indian community. This linguistic detail highlights the increasing international doubt of the Indian side of the story, and unsubtly casts doubt on the validity of occupation. The current insurgency in the Kashmir valley is not a fight against terrorism in the eyes of many, but a struggle against political marginalization and human rights violations manifested through the course of decades.
The root cause of the current crisis dates back to August 2019 when Indian government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked the special status of Kashmir by abrogating Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution unilaterally. This step that was performed without permission of Kashmiris essentially abolished the limited autonomy of the region and split it in two territories governed by the federal administration. This culminated into mass arrests, internet blocks and a spectacular troop build-up, which further pushed the region deeper into repressiveness and alienation.
The GPI points to the fact that it currently has deployed approximately 500,000 soldiers in IIOJK-which is an unbelievable figure to say the least. There is also an influx in local police services in the region with an estimate of 130, 000 police officers. Together with the presence of the Rashtriya Rifles and other paramilitary force and keeping in view that Kashmir looks more like a fortified area and not as a peaceful civilian gazed location. In the report, the region is compared to a military cage, the day-to-day activities are constantly shrouded with a constant threat of observation, curfews and brutal force. The GPI cautions that, not only is such intense militarization unsustainable, but it is also a potential spark of conflict down the road.
On the contrary, AJK is quite peaceful and demilitarized. Pakistan side has not sought such forms of occupation and demographic engineering. What is also drastically different is the sheer lack of heavy-handed policing as well as the relatively low number of troops as compared to the current standing. This is another flaw in the claim by India that it is only doing this in Kashmir as a security politic. Instead, the report alleges, policies of the Indian government are meant to ensure domination and suppression of the opposition and to change the demography of the region.
The GPI as well gets into the domestic political incentive of India regarding its Kashmir strategy. Repealing Article 370 has served as a nationalism slogan by the Modi governing body in securing support of the nationalism mood in all parts of India. It is described as a success of national unification and a historical overdue payback on historical injustices. The situation on ground is however much more worrying. The region is placed under lockdown, politically disowned, and economically isolated, and stripped off land rights and political voice.
Worst of all, the GPI report predicts that in the course of the next 12 months there are substantial probabilities of armed conflict in Kashmir. The accumulation of force, the continued authoritarian repression of civil rights, and the increase in cross-border fire incident all lead to an ever-worse and acrimonious situation. Moreover, there is always the risk of unrest in India, which resorts to anti-Muslim violence specifically, and brings another element of threat to the already explosive conflict. According to the report, a single wrong move may become a domino effect, and both India and Pakistan will easily get involved in the full-scale war, with disastrous results on the whole South Asian continent.
The results of the Global Peace Index are a harsh call to attention of what the price is in Kashmir. With the world still keeping eye on the region, the international community is now required to engage its efforts diplomatically, de-escalation, and get back to the path of human rights and self-determination of the Kashmiri people. The world can no longer afford to keep silent and to do nothing- further silence and passivity can lead to a conflict which will be border-less and will destroy millions.
