Chenab River surge intensifies India-Pakistan water dispute.

India’s Water Aggression: A Grave Threat to Pakistan’s Water Security

Key Developments:

1. Sudden Surge in Chenab River Flow

   • India unilaterally increased water release into the Chenab River, raising concerns of water warfare.

   • Flow surged from 3,100 cusecs (Monday night) to 26,000 cusecs (Tuesday)—an unprecedented and unnatural spike.

   • Punjab Irrigation Minister Kazim Pirzada confirmed the “unnatural change”, warning of severe downstream impact.

2. Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Suspended by India

   • On April 23, India unilaterally suspended the IWT, citing baseless allegations against Pakistan.

   • The treaty (1960) bars India from altering river flows—yet New Delhi is now openly violating it.

   • Reservoir flushing at Salal & Baglihar dams conducted without prior notice to Pakistan, risking sudden floods followed by water shortages.

3. India’s Hydroelectric Aggression in IIOJK

   • Four hydropower projects (Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, Ratle) fast-tracked—aimed at controlling Chenab’s flow.

   • Combined capacity: 3,014 MW—directly threatening Pakistan’s water supply.

   • PM Modi’s statement: “India’s water will be stopped for India’s interests.”

4. Pakistan’s Stern Warning

   • Information Minister Atta Tarar: Tampering with Pakistan’s water is “an act of war”.

   • Experts warn: Even timing manipulation of water flows can disrupt agriculture, reducing crop yields.

   • Jinnah Institute: India’s actions could devastate Pakistan’s food security.

5. Legal & Diplomatic Battle

   • Pakistan already fighting Ratle hydro project case in Permanent Court of Arbitration (The Hague).

   • India now rushing construction of disputed dams, exploiting IWT suspension.

Why This Matters:

• Food Security at Risk: Chenab’s water is vital for Punjab’s agriculture—any disruption could trigger food shortages.

• Economic Warfare: India is weaponizing water to strangle Pakistan’s economy.

• Violation of International Law: Unilateral IWT suspension and dam constructions breach bilateral & global norms.

Pakistan’s Options:

✔ Diplomatic Pressure: Mobilize UN, World Bank, and allies to hold India accountable.
✔ Legal Action: Escalate cases in international courts against illegal dam constructions.
✔ Military Readiness: Treat water sabotage as an act of aggression warranting a response.

India’s water aggression is a direct threat to Pakistan’s survival. By manipulating river flows and rushing dam projects, New Delhi is waging economic and environmental warfare. Pakistan must respond decisively—through diplomatic, legal, and if necessary, defensive measures—to safeguard its water rights and national security.