US President Donald Trump as recently as last month meeting with the current Army Chief of Pakistan General Asim Munir at the White House has struck a strategic jolt in New Delhi. It was not just a form of courtesy since the meeting presages a significant transformation in US-Pakistan relations which the Indian side is quite uncomfortable. The symbolism of this interaction is not the only thing that is of interest to New Delhi; what is at stake is the substance, an expansion of a counter-terrorism collaboration and a possibility of American military aid to Pakistan again. All this is causing India to review not only its relationship with the US, but to reconsider its interaction with China, as well: an economically sensible but politically cringe-worthy geopolitical shuffle.
US-Pakistan defence relations have been a matter of insecurity to India. The history of military assistance Washington has been giving to Islamabad, under the cover of counterterrorism, has seldom corresponded to that of security interests of India. In the point of view of New Delhi, the American arms which are supplied to Pakistan have frequently ended up in the mouths which are aimed not at the anti-terror actions against Pakistan, but against India. The Trump-Munir conversation, which was on improving bilateral cooperation in the security aspects, awakens the old anxieties with renewed urgency. What grates India even more is the abrupt nature of this change, especially coming to someone, such as Trump, who in the past boasted of an excellent personal relationship with the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.
The unrest in India is no longer a secret that is talked about behind the scenes. When Modi snubs the invitation by Trump to visit Washington and when he proposes retaliatory tariffs at the WTO, the measures cannot be termed merely retaliatory but strategic protest. Another obvious indication is that India is not ready to remain a submissive associate role in the Indo-Pacific vision led by US. This sounds alarmist and is a public diplomatic backlash that signals the uneasiness and even awareness on the part of the Indian government that alliances with Washington can readily change and at unpredictable times.
More shocking is the rate at which India has responded by looking up to China. Even after years of tension on the border, and a violent clash at Galwan last year, India is indicating that things are getting thawed. Chinese investment limits are also being slowly relaxed and there is fresh life in the diplomatic world. It is not an indication of a full rapprochement, but it is an indicator of a policy of hedging. What India is telling Washington is this, treat Pakistan as a very important ally once again and India would not think twice of creating a balance act by cozying up with its neighbour in the north.
Such a shift towards China although in a careful manner, reveals the true face of opportunism that lies at the core of Indian foreign policy. New Delhi has had a rather disturbing history of playing fun and games with powers to which it can relate at a given time. An example of this turnaround is the situation with Afghan Taliban. They have already been declared as terrorists by Indians, yet now; New Delhi is even engaging in back-channel talks with the same group that it had previously criticized just to ensure that it is still in playing position in Kabul. This lack of consistency does not turn heads of its partners and must not be music to ears of those who thought of India as a stable US ally in the Asian continent.
Worse is the fact that India seems to believe that they can determine US policy especially relating to Pakistan. It is a pretence that has a smack of mean trip melodramatic arrogance coupled with diplomatic naivete. The emergence of India on the international landscape has created an assumption that the country can dominate the Indo-Pacific narrative at its own will. However, this overlooks Pakistan strategic utility to Washington, especially on such issues as Afghanistan, counterterrorism as well as countering Chinese influences in the region. As far as US is concerned, the decision to overlook Pakistan would be equivalent to disregarding a significant lever to stability in the region, which the meeting between Trump and Munir can be considered recognizing.
The thought that India might in the future try to kick the US out of the Indian ocean region is not a stretch. Its desires to have it as its own in the region are evident, right down to expanding its navy, and its bid to become a regional leader via mechanisms such as participation in the Indian Ocean Rim Association. Although India might represent itself as a self-proclaimed member of the Indo-Pacific plan that is led by the United States, it might not be part of its vision in the long run. India might be soon interested in dominance of its maritime backyard at the cost of American influence, as it grows stronger.
The Trump administration as well as any United States government in the future should not treat India as a reliable ally, but one whose loyalty is highly conditional. This does not imply that Washington ought to leave India behind, but they should take note of its changing priorities. The extreme retrofitting of India in the direction of China is another prime demonstration of just how fast India is capable of throwing caution to the wind when it perceives itself to be belittled or vulnerable to strategic interests.
On its part, India will have to shed off its false pride. The US and Pakistan both do not face a zero-sum affair. This diplomatic fallacy is practiced by New Delhi as it supposes that Washington is forced to pick between India and Pakistan. Pakistan has a strategic depth, which has evaded India, especially in Central Asia and Middle East. Instead of lobbying the Pakistan government to act against its regional neighbours, India could afford to improve its value proposition without attempting to undermine what people are trying to achieve through relationships with their neighbours.
India is woken up by the fact that Trump is now interested in Pakistan. Strategic partnership cannot be based on personal chemistry; it must rest on the intersection of interests and admiration. India needs to understand that the entire world cannot view Pakistan through Indian prism, but in its original merit. Trying to intimidate India in to gaining monopoly in US goodwill, through bad cop and good cop style policing or even threatening trade will only leave India more alienated.
