U.S. officials say new intelligence indicates Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

Key Points:

1. Potential Israeli Strike on Iran:

   • The U.S. has obtained intelligence indicating Israel may be preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the Trump administration and Tehran.

   • Such a strike could strain U.S.-Israel relations and escalate regional tensions, particularly amid the ongoing fallout from the Gaza war since 2023.

2. Uncertainty and Internal U.S. Disagreement:

   • U.S. officials are divided on whether Israel will ultimately act, noting that no final decision has been made.

   • Israel’s actions may hinge on the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks—particularly if a deal fails to fully dismantle Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities.

3. Military Preparations and Signaling:

   • The U.S. has observed Israeli military movements, including air munitions deployments and completed exercises, which could indicate imminent action—or simply an attempt to pressure Iran diplomatically.

   • Israel lacks the capacity to fully destroy Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. support (e.g., midair refueling and bunker-busting bombs).

4. Trump’s Diplomatic Deadline and Red Lines:

   • In March, Trump reportedly gave Iran’s Supreme Leader a 60-day ultimatum to reach a deal, but talks have stalled.

   • The U.S. insists Iran must halt uranium enrichment entirely, while Tehran refuses, citing its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

5. Israel’s Strategic Dilemma:

   • Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure to prevent a U.S.-Iran deal Israel deems insufficient, while avoiding a direct clash with Trump.

   • Some analysts believe Israel may strike if it perceives the U.S. is settling for a “bad deal,” even without explicit U.S. approval.

6. Iran’s Vulnerable Position:

   • Due to Israeli airstrikes on its military infrastructure, economic sanctions, and weakened proxies, Iran is in its weakest state in decades—potentially encouraging Israeli action.

The U.S. is closely monitoring Israel’s military preparations amid rising tensions over Iran’s nuclear program. While diplomatic efforts continue, Israel appears to be weighing a unilateral strike if negotiations fail to meet its security demands. Such a move risks broader conflict and could further complicate U.S.-Israel relations. The situation remains volatile, with outcomes dependent on Iran’s willingness to compromise, Trump’s diplomatic strategy, and Netanyahu’s risk calculus. For now, the White House prioritizes diplomacy, but the threat of military escalation looms large.